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Sunday, September 21, 2008

Some scenarios to consider:

All of the states for which I have changed the alignment are within the margin of error. It is worth noting that, in Florida, Obama has narrowed McCain's lead from 5% to 2.8% in less than one week, and his lead in Colorado, Michigan, and other key states have expanded again.

Let's examine four possible scenarios I consider well within the realm of possibility.

Scenario 1 has Obama 273, McCain 265, and merely requires that Obama keep all of his current holdings.

Scenario 2 has Obama 298, McCain 240, and requires that Obama keep all of his current holdings except for Maryland (could substitute Maryland for Colorado, which would be more likely and be +1 Obama compared to this) AND take Ohio and North Carolina, though North Carolina could be substituted with Virginia for a -2 Obama and +2 McCain. This is not quite a landslide, but a significant defeat and probably the end of McCain's career in politics.

Scenario 3 is about as optimistic as you'll ever find me with Obama winning 320 Electoral Votes to McCain's 218. This requires Obama to maintain his current holdings and gain Ohio and Florida. While this would not qualify as a textbook definition of a landslide, well, a 102 point win in a 538 point contest isn't anything to laugh at. This would almost certainly end McCain's career in politics, if not in deed, then by every practical measure.

Finally is my Nightmare Scenario, which has Senator Obama tied with Senator McCain at 269 Electoral Votes each. This would require simply Obama losing Colorado's 9 Electoral Votes and gaining Nevada's 5 Electoral Votes. This would give McCain the win for the reasons outlined in my previous response, unless more states' House delegations go blue. The political fallout for the loser would be unknown, but the fallout for this nation if McCain wins would be grave. While the odds of Obama losing Colorado drop daily, I included this scenario to show exactly how little it would take to turn this election cycle into a nightmare. Two little changes, one positive, one negative, can lead to a disastrous outcome.

Now, instead of music, I think I'll close this post with some humor to lessen the blow of my last comment, and to remind us of some freedoms we've lost. Enjoy.

See more funny videos at Funny or Die


Candace said...

I notice you have PA in the blue in all scenarios. I thought PA was running close, but not all blue. Anyway, good work. Let's stay optimistic.

Mandelbrot's Chaos said...

PA is pulling away for Obama, and with Biden's ties to the blue-collar areas of that state, while I'm not sure, I'm sure enough. Current polling him ahead in PA by 2.5%, and the Intrade prediction markets have 66.7% confidence that PA will go blue. I won't say it's a lock, but I'm confident. The states that worry me the most are Colorado and Minnesota, and Obama's lead is expanding in those two states. As for New England, that's so deep a blue it could easily be mistaken for the ocean.

Candace said...

Thanks for the info - that makes sense. I know I said let's stay optimistic, BUT -- I keep hearing about irregularities and outright deceptive practices to keep poor people from voting - they don't have forms available, or it's the wrong form, or their names have been taken off the rolls for nefarious reasons, etc. - I'm sure you've about it all. Bastards. I think there will be a humongous turnout, but I'm afraid a lot of votes will never be counted, and large numbers of people will be turned away because their names are not on the lists. Deep breaths. Deep breaths...

Mandelbrot's Chaos said...

Actually, this is where Obama's ground game is so important. He already has lawyers in Michigan trying to prevent "caging" voters whose homes have been or are in the process of foreclosure. The dirty tricks will not go unchallenged.

1138 said...

dirty tricks

Did I hear someone say Georgia?

We just bought more machines that have been proven as tamperable and Georgia is the only state in the country using them.

Early voting is going on now and all early votes can be considered (IM educated O) tampered.

This is the year that I have considered not voting because Georgia needs international monitors and polls and they are not coming. Our votes are for nothing.

Photo ID required
even if you have voted in the same place the last 60 years, no exceptions local rules no longer apply.

Snave said...

Scenarios 1, 2 and 3 are all acceptable in my book. The Nightmare Scenario is unacceptable.

I think the way things are going, your Scenario 2 might be what we see. I like the idea of Obama making inroads into "the heartland" (whatever in hell that is, really) by getting CO and NM away from the reds.

If Obama keeps successfully hammering McCain on the economy and if he continues to debate well, I don't see why he might not take Florida too... you might be able to throw Nevada in there. That would give Obama 330 electoral votes, which is not out of the realm of possibility.

With Scenario 2, if everything else stayed the same, McCain could take NC and one of NM or CO, and Obama would still win either 278-260 or 274-264.

But once again with the way things are going, I don't see why it should have to be that close.

This is fun stuff to speculate about. I think Obama is looking good. No Nightmare Scenario, please!

Snave said...

Also, with these polls, I used to read and hear that people whose only phone is a cell phone (i.e. maybe a couple million college students?) don't get included in the polls done by phone, that is, the phone polls rely on land lines. Is this true?

I like to think that with all the new Dems registered and with so many of them being young voters, a lot of them might not be getting included in polls. Because of that, I like to think Obama might actually be leading by a bit more than some polls say he is, or that some close polls might actually be more likely to lean Obama's way. How much difference would this make in a poll? A percentage point or two? Thus if Obama has closed to a 2.8% deficit in Florida, I like to believe it may actually be about dead even.