Let's examine four possible scenarios I consider well within the realm of possibility.
Scenario 1 has Obama 273, McCain 265, and merely requires that Obama keep all of his current holdings.
Scenario 2 has Obama 298, McCain 240, and requires that Obama keep all of his current holdings except for Maryland (could substitute Maryland for Colorado, which would be more likely and be +1 Obama compared to this) AND take Ohio and North Carolina, though North Carolina could be substituted with Virginia for a -2 Obama and +2 McCain. This is not quite a landslide, but a significant defeat and probably the end of McCain's career in politics.
Scenario 3 is about as optimistic as you'll ever find me with Obama winning 320 Electoral Votes to McCain's 218. This requires Obama to maintain his current holdings and gain Ohio and Florida. While this would not qualify as a textbook definition of a landslide, well, a 102 point win in a 538 point contest isn't anything to laugh at. This would almost certainly end McCain's career in politics, if not in deed, then by every practical measure.
Finally is my Nightmare Scenario, which has Senator Obama tied with Senator McCain at 269 Electoral Votes each. This would require simply Obama losing Colorado's 9 Electoral Votes and gaining Nevada's 5 Electoral Votes. This would give McCain the win for the reasons outlined in my previous response, unless more states' House delegations go blue. The political fallout for the loser would be unknown, but the fallout for this nation if McCain wins would be grave. While the odds of Obama losing Colorado drop daily, I included this scenario to show exactly how little it would take to turn this election cycle into a nightmare. Two little changes, one positive, one negative, can lead to a disastrous outcome.
Now, instead of music, I think I'll close this post with some humor to lessen the blow of my last comment, and to remind us of some freedoms we've lost. Enjoy.
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