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Thursday, September 18, 2008

270 or bust:

I had meant to do a number of posts in the last week, but realizing I was not in the proper frame of mind to do so, I opted to be silent and not expose my folly. This, however, is something I found interesting and did not fully understand until last night, and with that understanding comes a troubled mind. It seems that with a tie or a plurality, which is not very likely given our current two-party system, it does go to the newly elected House of Representatives to decide who becomes the next president. The last time this happened was after the 1824 Presidential elections, and when that happened, the rules as stated in the Twelfth Amendment make for a rather byzantine process.

True, it would go to the House of Representatives, which you would think would be good news for Obama with a blue Congress. However, you would be wrong, because each state gets only one vote, and if the Congressional delegation is evenly split, that state is considered to be abstaining. According to the political prediction markets and current polling data, Senator Obama currently has 22 states plus DC, which would give him 273 electoral votes and a win. After exhaustive effort, I found that I could not determine the breakdown of the 50 states' House delegations at any point before the sun turns into a cold, hard cinder, or at least before I put a heavy object through my monitor out of frustration. However, let's work with the numbers I do have. That means 28 states for McCain, and 22 states for Obama, which means that if the Electoral Vote is split 269-269, we're probably looking at President McCain.

I wrote this post because we need to do everything we can to encourage people to vote in this, the single most important election of the last half century. It is my fervent belief, after exhaustive research of both major candidates and those who fell during the primaries, that Senator Obama and Senator Biden are our best, and perhaps last, hope to restore the freedoms we once enjoyed in this great nation. I'm ready for November 4. Are you?


1 comment:

Snave said...

Yikes, I was just thinking about that last night, that is, what if it ended up tied? You have answered my question here.

270 or Bust, indeed. 270 for Obama would be a boom for America, but it looks like 269 would be like the ultimate bust.