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Wednesday, October 01, 2008

The winner of the Sept. 27 debate:

This is a quick little post based on a rather pleasant trip to the Yahoo political dashboard. First, a brief rundown of what's happened. Obama is up 5% in Colorado, 6% in New Mexico, 5% in Wisconsin, 5.6% in Minnesota, and over 6% in the following key states: Michigan, Iowa, and Pennsylvania. All of that is the appetizer. Here's the meat of it: Florida has shifted to a 3% Obama lead from a solid McCain lead. Nevada has shifted from weak McCain to a 0.5% Obama lead. McCain's lead in Indiana has shrunk to 2.4%, and his lead in Missouri has shrunk to 1.7%. Virginia has shifted from solid McCain to a 2.5% Obama lead, and North Carolina has shifted from solid McCain to a 0.3% Obama lead according to These polls about who performed better or who got the better digs in or other psychological aspects of it, while interesting, do not carry anywhere near the significance of the electoral map. Psychology is important, and I don't mean to diminish its value, especially in presidential politics. However, the most important measure of its impact is found in the electoral map. It is for this reason I address these polls instead of the "Who do you think won last Friday?" poll questions.

I have created a new scenario that is plausible based on the current data. It exceeds the previous high-water mark for my optimism about Obama's chances. The states I gave to Obama were plausible, and the states I gave McCain were plausible. I think the name I gave this scenario says it all.

Enjoy. I can't embed this song, but I can provide a link. :) I don't know how applicable it is to this post, but it's just good music.

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